Editor's Note: The aftermath of the 2009 financial crisis in 2010 did not cause much impact on the LED industry. The LED industry, the spring of 2010 was warm. Summer is hot. To achieve new breakthroughs in optical efficiency, LED lighting, universal acceleration, the introduction of a number of standard LED, two LED business of domestic market, dog eat dog mess of traditional lighting to LED lighting is also competing to transfer. Carbon emission reduction in the energy context, LED's show staged everywhere. Opportune, LED does not shine is immune. That said, after the still optimistic to think calmly, Ten thousand ten cities Redu no longer, EMC model Yin Zhengyi, the chip "flagrant" prices triggered a chain reaction ... ...
This month's "senior engineer observed," We are from ten different angles on the LED industry for the first half of 2010 the inventory. They are:
● chip prices up against the historical trend? ● Ten thousand ten cities Redu no longer
Two LED ● ● number of domestic listed companies introduced confusion in the industry standard has not been dissolved
● EMC spoiler LED industry ● LED TV penetration than-expected
● Optical Industrial Park Investment tight ● Accelerating the adoption of LED lighting in overseas markets
● high-power chip light efficiency to achieve new breakthroughs ● traditional lighting to LED lighting to accelerate the transfer of
Chip prices up against the historical trend?
It GLII monitoring, since the beginning of the chip supply, began in April after rising trend, especially in backlight and low-power chip with a chip, Backlight manufacturers plagued by shortages. High-power chip prices remain stable, the price continued to fall until the situation has been curbed. Low-power chip prices, price increases of up to 10? 50%. Chip prices by a number of factors, including demand, MOCVD out of stock, stock, etc. sapphire.
Large-size LCD backlight market, the early arrival of LED and LED lighting market's rapid advance to the LED chip factory in China has brought a huge, unprecedented historical opportunity. Massive expansion of the LED manufacturers, LED demand growth downstream, upstream epitaxial wafers, chip to expand production capacity has not been fully released, the chip has led to tight supply of LED chip prices.
2010 global MOCVD will reach 600 units out of stock. According to Veeco and Aixtron's plan in 2010, 200 sets of MOCVD will be out of stock. Order MOCVD need to line up in recent months. MOCVD, the average lead time is 6 months, the time required to debug volume 2? 3 months, in addition to personnel training.
Sapphire material supply situation began to appear early, since the beginning of prices about 20%. Sapphire substrate is the status of a small number of enterprises, production capacity, high barriers to key technologies and issues to be improved yield, plant expansion takes about six to nine months. Part of the chip business began to go to the larger part of the production of sapphire substrate is one of the causes of tension. Future demand will naturally sapphire substrates driven by business expansion or new business to the industry in the past, the next two years will reach a new equilibrium.
LED upstream core technology and patents are held by the hands of a few large companies, does not rule out the MOCVD equipment manufacturers to cause this shortage situation, their purpose is to monopolize the price of MOCVD equipment. Aixtron and Veeco two German MOCVD equipment the United States dominated the global plant more than 90 percent of the MOCVD equipment market share.
GLII predict the situation in the second half of this price rise will continue, especially 6? September 9? December as part of the MOCVD formally put into production, prices will be somewhat eased the situation. Since the beginning of the first chip factory in Taiwan to improve the green wafer prices. Domestic Saman, Chinese Chan, Shilan Ming core chip factory and other signs of the price has gone up in price.
In addition, the domestic structure of the entire LED industry chain is the leading cause of domestic chip prices, domestic LED epitaxial materials chips to middle and low, 80% of the power LED chips, components need to rely on imports.
This time the prices of different manufacturers have different reactions. Tang Guoqing, said Cree, CREE chip prices remain stable. He believes that future chips will be more and more, and will be the overall downward trend. Vice President Shih-Hsien Chang pointed out that the electric crystal, sapphire substrate the second quarter average prices of about 20%, they have to discuss prices and customer related issues.
Wide? Optical Chen Chin-tsai, chairman, said prices have been the first international customer for the widely? Shipped to Seoul Semiconductor's LED chip prices 5%? 10%. Ruifeng power Gong Weibin said, "LED chip prices up recently at least one percent more than estimated before the first quarter of next year, LED chips are difficult to alleviate the shortage situation." But the price of the chip optimistic that the LED chip stock condition to the second quarter of next year would be substantially mitigated.
Senior Engineer LED CEO Xiaofei that upstream chip prices, some of the main phosphor, frame, aluminum and other companies to follow suit and prices, so pass one level down, even the most simple up LED bulb costs a lot.
Information from all sides, we believe that the situation will continue to price the second quarter of next year, followed by a sustained decline in the situation, chip prices but a specific historical period-specific phenomenon. After the chips continue to fall next year the situation will continue. The tide of history has not fundamentally changed.
Ten thousand ten cities Redu no longer
Say in 2009, semiconductor lighting industry, a landmark event, none other than non-Ten thousand ten cities. Science and Technology in early 2009 issued Ten thousand ten cities reply, followed by the high decibel media publicity. Taiwan, an organization boldly predicted in 2009 the country's installed LED street lights will reach 1.4 million, the end of 2009, according to GLII statistics, the amount of actual installed lamp only 222 000.
Dysfunction in 2009 have launched LED lights production line. But most have suffered a loss, mainly mounted lights amounted to less than expected, many more than just installing some demonstration lights. GLII investigation, LED lights line loss rate as high as 70%.
Into 2010, the market gradually senses. Whether on the Ten thousand ten cities media reports, or seminars for the discussion of Ten thousand ten cities have substantially reduced. Ministry of Science and the Ministry rarely released on Ten thousand ten cities of the information. LED lights last year on news of the test, but seldom heard in the first half of this year related news.
According GLII survey, the entire first half, launched LED lights line the number of firms last year, only 1 / 4. Many enterprises have turned to commercial lighting. LED commercial lighting developed in early 2010, the rapid development of the domestic market share of LED lighting business, foreign trade accounted for a large share, and some even reached 90%.
A source close to government decision-makers told Engineering LED correspondent, launched in 2009 Ten thousand ten cities is to the point of irritation of the information. Now the mission seems to have been completed, the market is gradually from "orientation" to "business-oriented."
National policy-making departments to Ten thousand ten cities cool because LED lamp technology is not mature, large-scale installation is still some way off. According to the test results show that last year, LED lights did not meet a number of parameters.
Some experts believe that the LED lamp technology is not mature enough, in Europe and other developed countries, it is only the LED lights for the community, or small-scale pilot in branch roads, and China launched a large-scale LED lights, making China into a global LED lights as a testing ground.
National policies to support the introduction of EMC Ten thousand ten cities to increase the variable. Ten thousand ten cities to implement the original money came from all sides has been concern by local governments to promote LED lights is very difficult, but mainly to the Science and Technology policy has not issued funding.
Popularity of LED lights using EMC, then solve the problem of financial funds, but faced with how to recover costs. According to statistics, if the use of 250W LED lamps replace 400W high pressure sodium lamp, the cost recovery period is more than eight years. Obviously a very long recovery period, the current conditions should not be a large scale.
According GLII statistics, first half of 2010 the installed capacity of LED lamps 200 000. Expected in the second half of the installed capacity of 300,000, the annual installed capacity reached 500,000.
Looking to install LED lights next year, the amount will steadily increase slightly. Ten thousand ten cities before the so-called goal; 1) a pilot phase in 2009 in 21 pilot cities, the application of one million municipal LED lighting, LED devices which the proportion of domestic production target of 60%; 2) the demonstration stage (2010 ? 2012), completed in China, 50 semiconductor lighting model city construction work, the application of two million municipal LED lighting, while the proportion of domestic LED devices target of 70%.
It now appears that the goal has been difficult to achieve!
Two LED domestic listed companies
In the "senior engineer LED" in the February issue of the year-end inventory, GLII has boldly predicted that "there are not any LED packaging companies in the near future the situation will end." This prediction has been fulfilled in the first half. April 2, country star power IPO will be successful too, as A-share market the first LED packaging company IPO shares.
Country star power IPO plans to issue 5500 shares, raising 504 million yuan, proceeds will be used SMD LED technological innovation, power LED and LED light source module transformation, LED backlight key transformation and semiconductor lighting technology and industry of the four projects. Most of the current country star products industry is still low, the company hopes to fund-raising for technology upgrades.
May 28, Xiamen dry according to optical GEM IPO will be successful too. The company is preparing to issue not more than 2950 shares, funds raised will be used for high brightness quaternary LED epitaxial wafers and chips four projects, the estimated total investment of 450 million yuan.
The main products dried according to optical light is primarily red, yellow, high-brightness LED epitaxial silicon quaternary and three-junction gallium arsenide solar cells, epitaxial wafers, related areas in the country plays a decisive role.
NVC successfully listed in Hong Kong in 2009, only NVC Lighting LED product revenue 0.8% of total revenue. NVC program will be available for 10% of funds raised for LED lighting research and development.
China Star, dry according to the listing provoked many LED companies listed expectations. According GLII survey, there are already 43 LED companies to complete share reform, gearing up, to "stage singing." We believe that the listed companies in 2010 will not be country star, according to two dry. In the second half may be there is a market, the larger is the hope of Ruifeng power and packaging areas Hongli Opto-electronic.
Throughout the first half of 2010, shares of the LED, compared with last year, LED surge in corporate stock of the situation no longer exists, the market and restore investors are rational, but still high price-earnings ratio of some enterprises, such as Germany Runda The price-earnings ratio reached 152.
Introduced a number of standards confusion in the industry has not been dissolved
In early 2010, the National Conference of LED standards Publicizing held in Jiangmen, Guangdong, was released nine semiconductor lighting industry standards. These include "the power semiconductor optoelectronic devices Blank detail specification for light-emitting diodes," "semiconductor light-emitting diode test", "GaN-based light-emitting diode chip with a sapphire substrate," "semiconductor light-emitting diodes with phosphor", "Power semiconductor light-emitting diodes chip technical specifications "," semiconductor light-emitting diode chip testing methods, "" low-power semiconductor optoelectronic devices Blank detail specification for light-emitting diode "," family-type semiconductor light-emitting diodes spectrum "and" semiconductor lighting term "to cover the LED materials, chips, devices Testing methods and related fields.
The first half of the full flowering of local standards. January 22, Shanghai issued "using LED technology lighting construction and acceptance - Part 1: Construction Standards" and "the use of LED technology lighting construction and acceptance - Part 2: Acceptance." March 29, Jiangxi local standards through the LED lights. April 15, Shaanxi formal implementation "road lighting with LED lights" local standards. May Nanchang introduced the "interior lighting with LED tube light," "interior lighting with LED Bulbs" two local standards. Hubei release "LED road lighting 'standard.
At present, the standard has not formed a system of systems, industry-standard chaotic situation has not changed. China's management of state LED standard in the long, involving LED standardized institutions, "Industry and the Ministry of Information Industry Working Group Semiconductor lighting technical standards" (referred to as LED Standards Working Group), "Lighting the National Standardization Technical Committee" (referred to as the lighting standards committee Council), "Industry and the Ministry of Information Industry Flat Panel Display Standard Workgroup" (referred to as the flat panel display standard working group) and so on.
At this stage of China's lighting standard system is basically to reference the main international standards and European standards, the lack of appropriate independent research work, it is difficult to provide technical support for the standard. International standards are usually more comprehensive systems and procedures, which play a major role in the international research group of large companies, more focused on the actual test data to prove and modeling. GLII LED-based standards should be expected within two years to complete, and relevant standards applications will require more time.
Looking ahead two years, there will be more standard introduction. Standards and technical norms in the legal market, the industry as soon as possible out of the good and bad, cohabitation situation.
Currently, the link between standards and patents more closely the developed countries and multinational corporations have sought to become the standard patent in order to obtain greater economic benefits. Local standards in the country has been largely reflect the interests of local enterprises. All over the place because different standards to meet local standards, it is difficult to meet foreign standards. In essence, the local standards hindered the development of the industry throughout the country.
EMC spoiler LED industry
In April, the State Council promulgated the "accelerate the implementation of energy management contract to promote energy services industry view", with the introduction of the policy development of the LED is closely related. LED lighting is a major EMC promising areas.
The core content of the policy is to contract energy management (EMC) projects into the central budget for investment and central government special funds to support energy saving range of energy service companies to implement the project to implement a series of tax policies EMC, EMC in the process of improving the accounting system and financial services.
In June, 2010, the Ministry of Finance decided to arrange $ 2 billion to support energy service companies to contract energy management in industry, construction, transportation and other fields as well as public institutions to implement energy saving.
Throughout the first half also have conducted a number of EMC cases, most in Guangdong Province. In these cases of success and failures. Failure is not to complete the various factors into account. Guangdong Investment Fund actively planning for the green industry in several provinces and cities LED lighting retrofit.
It is understood that Guangdong will officially start the second half of EMC, the main job of testing than the first half of the work, this year in Guizhou, Zhejiang, Guangdong will start three large cases.
The current EMC development is still faced with many obstacles. First, technically, the current LED lamps still have a long recovery period, high-wattage lights to more than eight years, indoor lighting, but also four or five years. LED lighting is a rapidly developing technology, EMC is now feasible to carry out large-scale, highly challenged industry.
Another problem is that EMC's financing has not yet been resolved. As the nature of the business of EMC has not yet been recognized, EMC's loan and guarantee more difficult to find. The current accounting system must make EMC Corporation income taxes twice.
Another obstacle is the EMC distribution of interests involved. If the LED lights on the use of EMC, then goes to the street directly on the interests. Because the state is no longer spend money to purchase oil and water lights are gone. Of banks and guarantee companies, the cost recovery period is longer, increasing the risk.
For local governments at this stage can be energy saving, but after a few years later. When compared to the technical and price may not be able to saving money. For businesses, on the one hand EMC brought them orders, on the other hand, hire them unbearable, and subsequent maintenance costs also gives them a tremendous pressure.
Looking ahead, EMC will continue to develop in the dark, and with the advances in LED technology, lower prices, improve the system, the feasibility will gradually increase.
LED TV penetration than-expected
2010 LED-backlit TV is truly broke, its energy-saving, environmental protection and color performance and other advantages have been recognized by consumers, in the 3D television is high-profile publicity, LED TV host has been completed quickly to seize the market. GLII statistics, LED backlit TV's market share from 7% in 2009 rising to 35% in 2010. Ran Zhanhuo LED TV, LED manufacturers in Taiwan, Japan and Korea Competition.
Samsung LED TV 2010, originally planned for the 10 million units shipped, but optimistic about the market acceptance will be pulled out more than 17 million units shipped.
LED-backlit TV is considered as the future of the mainstream TV market, the world of course, LG LCD TV plant will not miss this golden opportunity. LG will also be the original plan of 600 million units in one fell swoop LED TV shipments increased to 15 million units, with the means to compete against Samsung is very strong.
Japanese plants have significantly improved the number of target LED TV in 2010, major manufacturers such as Sony, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic, shipment target of 500 million units, respectively, 400 million units, 200 million units, 2.5 million; Taiwan joint-venture factory Amtran brand Vizio LED TV 2010 is also very high volume target for 250 million units.
Brand manufacturers big move into LED TV, forcing other TV makers to follow up, Chinese enterprises to step up the layout of the mainstream TV LED TV market. Hisense LED TV is the first set foot in mainland domestic brands, since 2008 LED TV launched several products, and full volume production. Skyworth, TCL, Hisense, etc. during the Spring Festival in 2010 to selling a substantial price reduction LED TV products, compared with foreign brands, low price of about 30? 40%, has been and is an LCD TV (LCD TV) prices even more close. According to the budget in 2010, China's domestic LED TV manufacturers plan to produce 5.5 million units.
Although the television industry for its 2010 shipment target LED TV set quite high, but can it reach the target number, remains to be seen whether the upstream LED supply chain cope. The industry estimates that by 2010 the global LED-backlit LCD TV shipments expected to reach 35 million units, lower than the LED TV industry and the sum of the annual target of 3.6 million units in 2009, an increase of 870%. LED LCD TVs on the needs of each LED to project the number of 580, estimated 2010 demand for chips used in the LED backlight about 20 billion.
LED-backlit TVs in high demand on the upstream LED chip supply caused no small pressure to ensure adequate supply of LED chips, LED backlight to make their own TV's long-term development, the manufacturers are beginning to increase investment by way of cooperation or into the upper reaches the LED chip industry.
Samsung billion buyout of the capacity of light to give priority to manufacturing plans for this year's LED TV LED demand, LG and LED packaging factory previously announced Everlight, Taiwan LCD TV makers Amtran Technology in Jiangsu to invest and LED packaging factory. In addition, LG has also used his son LED chip factory LG Innotek to increase production capacity, LG Innotek has been bought in 2009, 50 sets of MOCVD equipment, is expected to increase this year 50.
The face of fierce competition, LED chips out of the situation, China's domestic LED TV manufacturers should be more focus on local sourcing LED suppliers who, like Di source Wuhan, Xiamen Sanan, Dalian Lu Ming, Shanghai Blue light and Sapphire, Jiangxi joint creation and optical crystal. Otherwise, there is no supply, can not make bricks without straw.
Optical Industrial Park Investment tight
Lighting is a big cake, in order to develop the local economy, have been started around the photoelectric industrial park. In addition to the seven major industrial base prior to spare no effort to put all the preferential policies, Jiangmen, Huizhou is to make all the investment.
Many newly established industrial park known as the output value will reach tens of billions. Jining, Shandong Science and Technology Park UMC plans to build the largest LED epitaxial wafers and the new energy industry base, said after the completion of sales of up to 100 billion yuan. Dalian Wafangdian photovoltaic park planning area of 5 square kilometers, known as a total investment of over ten billion yuan.
Various industrial park "Merchants of war" fierce. Jiangmen, Yangzhou, Wuhu and other cities, the introduction of MOCVD subsidies ten million each. A variety of disguised free land grants, research grants and other measures are common.
Shenzhen, the introduction of "Shenzhen LED industry development plan", plans to scale of the industry in 2015 reached 130 billion yuan. Cultivate over 10 billion yuan output value of enterprises 1, 5 billion of value 2? 3, output value of more than 10 million 10 or more. "Promote the development of the semiconductor industry, a number of measures photographs" in Shenzhen will focus on 100 million yuan earmarked for each year to support the semiconductor lighting industry.
Jiangmen City, introduced the "Green Jiangmen (semiconductor) light industry development plan (2009-2015)" and "High-tech Industrial Development Zone, Jiangmen City, the LED industry to promote the development of temporary preferences." One of the most notable is the introduction of MOCVD high subsidies.
Yangzhou City issued a "Yangzhou promote LED and solar photovoltaic industry development policy implementation," the "LED and Yangzhou on the promotion of the implementation of solar photovoltaic industry," and "Yangzhou LED epitaxial wafers with MOCVD equipment purchase subsidies Management Regulations "and so on.
Hangzhou, the introduction of "LED industry three-year action plan (2009-2011)", the city's LED industry sales value of above-scale enterprises and strive to reach 100 billion yuan, the annual average growth rate of 60%. Cultivate over 10 billion yuan annual output value of enterprises 1, 5 billion of business 2? 3, the formation of Hangzhou, a unique industry features and technical advantages.
Nanchang, Shandong, Xiamen, Zhongshan, Chengdu, Dalian, Jining, the South China Sea and other places all have introduced the relevant policies.
At present, China's photovoltaic industry park very wide distribution, and many of the surrounding industrial park is not supporting. A responsible official admitted Industrial Park Investment, now under construction across the country industrial park, if the location is almost, that is duplication.
Industrial Park to snatch all companies make a variety of commitment to the enterprise, and some committed hard cash. While not all businesses are high-tech semiconductor lighting companies, and some places in order to attract investment junk subsidies.
Looking ahead, there will be more industrial park was established. But Darwin's theory of evolution will be staged, natural selection, survival of the fittest, will eventually grow from a group of outstanding industrial park.
Accelerating the adoption of LED lighting in overseas markets
As the purchasing power of people in developed countries will be strong, while the traditional markets of developed countries on the difference between lamps and LED lamps smaller than in developing countries, the popularity of LED lighting issues, they at the forefront.
Japan GFK survey data show, LED light bulb market share in Japan from 2009 to 0.01% of the rapid increase of 10% in February this year.
In April, the Japanese government began to implement environmentally friendly products points system, receive government subsidies to buy LED green credits, the measures to further promote the popularity of LED lighting, and more are turning to the production of LED lighting products.
The most prominent is the performance of Toshiba Corporation, Toshiba has been the mainstay of LED lighting products, starting from March to stop the production of incandescent bulbs. Incandescent lamp is Toshiba's business products, over 120 years of production history.
Last year, Japan's 8W LED bulb price is 4000 yen, appearing on the market this year, more than 2,000 yen LED bulb. End of this year's estimated average price of the Japanese market will be reduced to 3000 yen or less.
European and American market with a similar scene in Japan, government policies to phase out incandescent light, green light on the grant. Meanwhile, the environmental awareness of people of European higher, but also causes rapid popularity of LED lighting. LED products to EU countries have a high subsidies, give Italy, for example, subsidy of up to 55%.
GLII survey, first quarter of 2010, output value of China's LED application 199 billion yuan, up 42% surge in overseas demand is an important reason.
LED current domestic foreign trade enterprises the proportion of total sales, up 70 percent, some companies reached 90%. Overall, the market situation is China's production overseas sales. Next couple of years this situation will continue.
High-power chips to achieve new breakthroughs in optical efficiency
February this year, American Career (CREE) announced that its high-power chips to achieve 208lm / W @ 350mA. The blue-chip companies through performance improvements, such as the optical output power, lower voltage and higher conversion efficiency, to achieve this historic breakthrough.
And two months after the company announced a 161lm / W for technological breakthroughs. According to Career test, 1 mm × 1 mm of the LED can produce 173 lumens of light output, to achieve 161lm / w of the optical efficiency, color temperature of 4689K.
December 2009, senior engineers LED CEO Xiaofei had predicted six months of laboratory medicine sharp luminous efficiency will reach 200lm / W. This prediction proved correct.
The research makes the light effect on the company's Career with other growing gap between the current Osram, Lumileds and other laboratory light effect in about 140? 150lm / W between. Over the past few years, the efficiency of LED chip production about a year 15lm / W growth rate, due to technological advances, Career in 2010 increased the efficiency of high-power chip is expected to reach 30lm / W.
This shows the Career of the silicon carbide substrate and GaN technology's unique advantages. In the low-power chip light effects, the Japanese are still ahead of other Asian giant, the highest efficiency so that the 249lm / W @ 20mA.
As most of the chip manufacturers to adopt a sapphire substrate technology, which line the slow growth of luminous efficiency, luminous efficiency is currently the technology's prospects in a still difficult to predict how, with pessimists believe that sapphire chip light-efficient only can reach 150lm / W. Future technology trends remains to be seen.
Traditional lighting to LED lighting to accelerate the transfer of
No wonder people in the industry that 2010 is the first year of the development of LED industry. 2010 Guangzhou International Lighting Exhibition is a strong evidence: 13.5 million square meters of exhibition area, the more than 70,000 square meters of LED exhibition, all more than half of the more than 1,800 companies have LED lighting products; all 13 exhibition halls in six to LED as its theme; exhibition site forums, events almost all LED-based theme. This show is almost as LED lighting in the world.
LED industry in the "Go! Go! Go!" The outbreak of the state. Anyone want to piece of meat and potatoes of eating delicious cake. Leading companies who like the traditional lighting Philips, Osram, GE, according to the Buddha, Op, NVC, TCL, three male Aurora, Benjamin, the state, the sun, Huayi, Benjamin, etc. are all overtly or covertly turn the LED lighting.
Philips dominate the chip, package, lighting and other businesses throughout the industrial chain. Philips LED bulbs lighting accounts for 10 percent of revenue%, Philips releases new LED lighting product news after another.
NVC Lighting and global leader CREE LED chip formed a strategic partnership, NVC will raise funds for 10% of the market for R & D of LED lighting products, these messages are all revealed NVC is a transition LED.
TCL Lighting nearly a decade to do the traditional lighting, recently started to engage in LED applications, over 70 variety of LED products to market.
Face straight to the point of traditional lighting, LED lighting is not in disarray. Is the so-called "Stones from other hills may serve to polish jade", LED lighting, traditional lighting should draw lessons from the capital, talent, technology, marketing, etc. to enrich their own strength. Not only in the Olympic Games, World Expo and other large items left on the beautiful figure, but also into the homes of ordinary people in every corner of the world to bring the green light.
Some countries prohibit the use of incandescent lamps of the plan, China will gradually phase out incandescent bulbs, energy saving in the world, under call, LED-specific green energy will encourage the industry into the glorious chapter. Favorable factors, both the LED to run into?? Good policy, the Government implemented, LED legitimate their way, insight will increasingly have to join the large team, participated in lighting change.
But, the revolution has not succeeded, comrades still work! Long road to just take the first step, the road is long Come, we need to up and down the quest! More visi: www.bgocled.com
This month's "senior engineer observed," We are from ten different angles on the LED industry for the first half of 2010 the inventory. They are:
● chip prices up against the historical trend? ● Ten thousand ten cities Redu no longer
Two LED ● ● number of domestic listed companies introduced confusion in the industry standard has not been dissolved
● EMC spoiler LED industry ● LED TV penetration than-expected
● Optical Industrial Park Investment tight ● Accelerating the adoption of LED lighting in overseas markets
● high-power chip light efficiency to achieve new breakthroughs ● traditional lighting to LED lighting to accelerate the transfer of
Chip prices up against the historical trend?
It GLII monitoring, since the beginning of the chip supply, began in April after rising trend, especially in backlight and low-power chip with a chip, Backlight manufacturers plagued by shortages. High-power chip prices remain stable, the price continued to fall until the situation has been curbed. Low-power chip prices, price increases of up to 10? 50%. Chip prices by a number of factors, including demand, MOCVD out of stock, stock, etc. sapphire.
Large-size LCD backlight market, the early arrival of LED and LED lighting market's rapid advance to the LED chip factory in China has brought a huge, unprecedented historical opportunity. Massive expansion of the LED manufacturers, LED demand growth downstream, upstream epitaxial wafers, chip to expand production capacity has not been fully released, the chip has led to tight supply of LED chip prices.
2010 global MOCVD will reach 600 units out of stock. According to Veeco and Aixtron's plan in 2010, 200 sets of MOCVD will be out of stock. Order MOCVD need to line up in recent months. MOCVD, the average lead time is 6 months, the time required to debug volume 2? 3 months, in addition to personnel training.
Sapphire material supply situation began to appear early, since the beginning of prices about 20%. Sapphire substrate is the status of a small number of enterprises, production capacity, high barriers to key technologies and issues to be improved yield, plant expansion takes about six to nine months. Part of the chip business began to go to the larger part of the production of sapphire substrate is one of the causes of tension. Future demand will naturally sapphire substrates driven by business expansion or new business to the industry in the past, the next two years will reach a new equilibrium.
LED upstream core technology and patents are held by the hands of a few large companies, does not rule out the MOCVD equipment manufacturers to cause this shortage situation, their purpose is to monopolize the price of MOCVD equipment. Aixtron and Veeco two German MOCVD equipment the United States dominated the global plant more than 90 percent of the MOCVD equipment market share.
GLII predict the situation in the second half of this price rise will continue, especially 6? September 9? December as part of the MOCVD formally put into production, prices will be somewhat eased the situation. Since the beginning of the first chip factory in Taiwan to improve the green wafer prices. Domestic Saman, Chinese Chan, Shilan Ming core chip factory and other signs of the price has gone up in price.
In addition, the domestic structure of the entire LED industry chain is the leading cause of domestic chip prices, domestic LED epitaxial materials chips to middle and low, 80% of the power LED chips, components need to rely on imports.
This time the prices of different manufacturers have different reactions. Tang Guoqing, said Cree, CREE chip prices remain stable. He believes that future chips will be more and more, and will be the overall downward trend. Vice President Shih-Hsien Chang pointed out that the electric crystal, sapphire substrate the second quarter average prices of about 20%, they have to discuss prices and customer related issues.
Wide? Optical Chen Chin-tsai, chairman, said prices have been the first international customer for the widely? Shipped to Seoul Semiconductor's LED chip prices 5%? 10%. Ruifeng power Gong Weibin said, "LED chip prices up recently at least one percent more than estimated before the first quarter of next year, LED chips are difficult to alleviate the shortage situation." But the price of the chip optimistic that the LED chip stock condition to the second quarter of next year would be substantially mitigated.
Senior Engineer LED CEO Xiaofei that upstream chip prices, some of the main phosphor, frame, aluminum and other companies to follow suit and prices, so pass one level down, even the most simple up LED bulb costs a lot.
Information from all sides, we believe that the situation will continue to price the second quarter of next year, followed by a sustained decline in the situation, chip prices but a specific historical period-specific phenomenon. After the chips continue to fall next year the situation will continue. The tide of history has not fundamentally changed.
Ten thousand ten cities Redu no longer
Say in 2009, semiconductor lighting industry, a landmark event, none other than non-Ten thousand ten cities. Science and Technology in early 2009 issued Ten thousand ten cities reply, followed by the high decibel media publicity. Taiwan, an organization boldly predicted in 2009 the country's installed LED street lights will reach 1.4 million, the end of 2009, according to GLII statistics, the amount of actual installed lamp only 222 000.
Dysfunction in 2009 have launched LED lights production line. But most have suffered a loss, mainly mounted lights amounted to less than expected, many more than just installing some demonstration lights. GLII investigation, LED lights line loss rate as high as 70%.
Into 2010, the market gradually senses. Whether on the Ten thousand ten cities media reports, or seminars for the discussion of Ten thousand ten cities have substantially reduced. Ministry of Science and the Ministry rarely released on Ten thousand ten cities of the information. LED lights last year on news of the test, but seldom heard in the first half of this year related news.
According GLII survey, the entire first half, launched LED lights line the number of firms last year, only 1 / 4. Many enterprises have turned to commercial lighting. LED commercial lighting developed in early 2010, the rapid development of the domestic market share of LED lighting business, foreign trade accounted for a large share, and some even reached 90%.
A source close to government decision-makers told Engineering LED correspondent, launched in 2009 Ten thousand ten cities is to the point of irritation of the information. Now the mission seems to have been completed, the market is gradually from "orientation" to "business-oriented."
National policy-making departments to Ten thousand ten cities cool because LED lamp technology is not mature, large-scale installation is still some way off. According to the test results show that last year, LED lights did not meet a number of parameters.
Some experts believe that the LED lamp technology is not mature enough, in Europe and other developed countries, it is only the LED lights for the community, or small-scale pilot in branch roads, and China launched a large-scale LED lights, making China into a global LED lights as a testing ground.
National policies to support the introduction of EMC Ten thousand ten cities to increase the variable. Ten thousand ten cities to implement the original money came from all sides has been concern by local governments to promote LED lights is very difficult, but mainly to the Science and Technology policy has not issued funding.
Popularity of LED lights using EMC, then solve the problem of financial funds, but faced with how to recover costs. According to statistics, if the use of 250W LED lamps replace 400W high pressure sodium lamp, the cost recovery period is more than eight years. Obviously a very long recovery period, the current conditions should not be a large scale.
According GLII statistics, first half of 2010 the installed capacity of LED lamps 200 000. Expected in the second half of the installed capacity of 300,000, the annual installed capacity reached 500,000.
Looking to install LED lights next year, the amount will steadily increase slightly. Ten thousand ten cities before the so-called goal; 1) a pilot phase in 2009 in 21 pilot cities, the application of one million municipal LED lighting, LED devices which the proportion of domestic production target of 60%; 2) the demonstration stage (2010 ? 2012), completed in China, 50 semiconductor lighting model city construction work, the application of two million municipal LED lighting, while the proportion of domestic LED devices target of 70%.
It now appears that the goal has been difficult to achieve!
Two LED domestic listed companies
In the "senior engineer LED" in the February issue of the year-end inventory, GLII has boldly predicted that "there are not any LED packaging companies in the near future the situation will end." This prediction has been fulfilled in the first half. April 2, country star power IPO will be successful too, as A-share market the first LED packaging company IPO shares.
Country star power IPO plans to issue 5500 shares, raising 504 million yuan, proceeds will be used SMD LED technological innovation, power LED and LED light source module transformation, LED backlight key transformation and semiconductor lighting technology and industry of the four projects. Most of the current country star products industry is still low, the company hopes to fund-raising for technology upgrades.
May 28, Xiamen dry according to optical GEM IPO will be successful too. The company is preparing to issue not more than 2950 shares, funds raised will be used for high brightness quaternary LED epitaxial wafers and chips four projects, the estimated total investment of 450 million yuan.
The main products dried according to optical light is primarily red, yellow, high-brightness LED epitaxial silicon quaternary and three-junction gallium arsenide solar cells, epitaxial wafers, related areas in the country plays a decisive role.
NVC successfully listed in Hong Kong in 2009, only NVC Lighting LED product revenue 0.8% of total revenue. NVC program will be available for 10% of funds raised for LED lighting research and development.
China Star, dry according to the listing provoked many LED companies listed expectations. According GLII survey, there are already 43 LED companies to complete share reform, gearing up, to "stage singing." We believe that the listed companies in 2010 will not be country star, according to two dry. In the second half may be there is a market, the larger is the hope of Ruifeng power and packaging areas Hongli Opto-electronic.
Throughout the first half of 2010, shares of the LED, compared with last year, LED surge in corporate stock of the situation no longer exists, the market and restore investors are rational, but still high price-earnings ratio of some enterprises, such as Germany Runda The price-earnings ratio reached 152.
Introduced a number of standards confusion in the industry has not been dissolved
In early 2010, the National Conference of LED standards Publicizing held in Jiangmen, Guangdong, was released nine semiconductor lighting industry standards. These include "the power semiconductor optoelectronic devices Blank detail specification for light-emitting diodes," "semiconductor light-emitting diode test", "GaN-based light-emitting diode chip with a sapphire substrate," "semiconductor light-emitting diodes with phosphor", "Power semiconductor light-emitting diodes chip technical specifications "," semiconductor light-emitting diode chip testing methods, "" low-power semiconductor optoelectronic devices Blank detail specification for light-emitting diode "," family-type semiconductor light-emitting diodes spectrum "and" semiconductor lighting term "to cover the LED materials, chips, devices Testing methods and related fields.
The first half of the full flowering of local standards. January 22, Shanghai issued "using LED technology lighting construction and acceptance - Part 1: Construction Standards" and "the use of LED technology lighting construction and acceptance - Part 2: Acceptance." March 29, Jiangxi local standards through the LED lights. April 15, Shaanxi formal implementation "road lighting with LED lights" local standards. May Nanchang introduced the "interior lighting with LED tube light," "interior lighting with LED Bulbs" two local standards. Hubei release "LED road lighting 'standard.
At present, the standard has not formed a system of systems, industry-standard chaotic situation has not changed. China's management of state LED standard in the long, involving LED standardized institutions, "Industry and the Ministry of Information Industry Working Group Semiconductor lighting technical standards" (referred to as LED Standards Working Group), "Lighting the National Standardization Technical Committee" (referred to as the lighting standards committee Council), "Industry and the Ministry of Information Industry Flat Panel Display Standard Workgroup" (referred to as the flat panel display standard working group) and so on.
At this stage of China's lighting standard system is basically to reference the main international standards and European standards, the lack of appropriate independent research work, it is difficult to provide technical support for the standard. International standards are usually more comprehensive systems and procedures, which play a major role in the international research group of large companies, more focused on the actual test data to prove and modeling. GLII LED-based standards should be expected within two years to complete, and relevant standards applications will require more time.
Looking ahead two years, there will be more standard introduction. Standards and technical norms in the legal market, the industry as soon as possible out of the good and bad, cohabitation situation.
Currently, the link between standards and patents more closely the developed countries and multinational corporations have sought to become the standard patent in order to obtain greater economic benefits. Local standards in the country has been largely reflect the interests of local enterprises. All over the place because different standards to meet local standards, it is difficult to meet foreign standards. In essence, the local standards hindered the development of the industry throughout the country.
EMC spoiler LED industry
In April, the State Council promulgated the "accelerate the implementation of energy management contract to promote energy services industry view", with the introduction of the policy development of the LED is closely related. LED lighting is a major EMC promising areas.
The core content of the policy is to contract energy management (EMC) projects into the central budget for investment and central government special funds to support energy saving range of energy service companies to implement the project to implement a series of tax policies EMC, EMC in the process of improving the accounting system and financial services.
In June, 2010, the Ministry of Finance decided to arrange $ 2 billion to support energy service companies to contract energy management in industry, construction, transportation and other fields as well as public institutions to implement energy saving.
Throughout the first half also have conducted a number of EMC cases, most in Guangdong Province. In these cases of success and failures. Failure is not to complete the various factors into account. Guangdong Investment Fund actively planning for the green industry in several provinces and cities LED lighting retrofit.
It is understood that Guangdong will officially start the second half of EMC, the main job of testing than the first half of the work, this year in Guizhou, Zhejiang, Guangdong will start three large cases.
The current EMC development is still faced with many obstacles. First, technically, the current LED lamps still have a long recovery period, high-wattage lights to more than eight years, indoor lighting, but also four or five years. LED lighting is a rapidly developing technology, EMC is now feasible to carry out large-scale, highly challenged industry.
Another problem is that EMC's financing has not yet been resolved. As the nature of the business of EMC has not yet been recognized, EMC's loan and guarantee more difficult to find. The current accounting system must make EMC Corporation income taxes twice.
Another obstacle is the EMC distribution of interests involved. If the LED lights on the use of EMC, then goes to the street directly on the interests. Because the state is no longer spend money to purchase oil and water lights are gone. Of banks and guarantee companies, the cost recovery period is longer, increasing the risk.
For local governments at this stage can be energy saving, but after a few years later. When compared to the technical and price may not be able to saving money. For businesses, on the one hand EMC brought them orders, on the other hand, hire them unbearable, and subsequent maintenance costs also gives them a tremendous pressure.
Looking ahead, EMC will continue to develop in the dark, and with the advances in LED technology, lower prices, improve the system, the feasibility will gradually increase.
LED TV penetration than-expected
2010 LED-backlit TV is truly broke, its energy-saving, environmental protection and color performance and other advantages have been recognized by consumers, in the 3D television is high-profile publicity, LED TV host has been completed quickly to seize the market. GLII statistics, LED backlit TV's market share from 7% in 2009 rising to 35% in 2010. Ran Zhanhuo LED TV, LED manufacturers in Taiwan, Japan and Korea Competition.
Samsung LED TV 2010, originally planned for the 10 million units shipped, but optimistic about the market acceptance will be pulled out more than 17 million units shipped.
LED-backlit TV is considered as the future of the mainstream TV market, the world of course, LG LCD TV plant will not miss this golden opportunity. LG will also be the original plan of 600 million units in one fell swoop LED TV shipments increased to 15 million units, with the means to compete against Samsung is very strong.
Japanese plants have significantly improved the number of target LED TV in 2010, major manufacturers such as Sony, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic, shipment target of 500 million units, respectively, 400 million units, 200 million units, 2.5 million; Taiwan joint-venture factory Amtran brand Vizio LED TV 2010 is also very high volume target for 250 million units.
Brand manufacturers big move into LED TV, forcing other TV makers to follow up, Chinese enterprises to step up the layout of the mainstream TV LED TV market. Hisense LED TV is the first set foot in mainland domestic brands, since 2008 LED TV launched several products, and full volume production. Skyworth, TCL, Hisense, etc. during the Spring Festival in 2010 to selling a substantial price reduction LED TV products, compared with foreign brands, low price of about 30? 40%, has been and is an LCD TV (LCD TV) prices even more close. According to the budget in 2010, China's domestic LED TV manufacturers plan to produce 5.5 million units.
Although the television industry for its 2010 shipment target LED TV set quite high, but can it reach the target number, remains to be seen whether the upstream LED supply chain cope. The industry estimates that by 2010 the global LED-backlit LCD TV shipments expected to reach 35 million units, lower than the LED TV industry and the sum of the annual target of 3.6 million units in 2009, an increase of 870%. LED LCD TVs on the needs of each LED to project the number of 580, estimated 2010 demand for chips used in the LED backlight about 20 billion.
LED-backlit TVs in high demand on the upstream LED chip supply caused no small pressure to ensure adequate supply of LED chips, LED backlight to make their own TV's long-term development, the manufacturers are beginning to increase investment by way of cooperation or into the upper reaches the LED chip industry.
Samsung billion buyout of the capacity of light to give priority to manufacturing plans for this year's LED TV LED demand, LG and LED packaging factory previously announced Everlight, Taiwan LCD TV makers Amtran Technology in Jiangsu to invest and LED packaging factory. In addition, LG has also used his son LED chip factory LG Innotek to increase production capacity, LG Innotek has been bought in 2009, 50 sets of MOCVD equipment, is expected to increase this year 50.
The face of fierce competition, LED chips out of the situation, China's domestic LED TV manufacturers should be more focus on local sourcing LED suppliers who, like Di source Wuhan, Xiamen Sanan, Dalian Lu Ming, Shanghai Blue light and Sapphire, Jiangxi joint creation and optical crystal. Otherwise, there is no supply, can not make bricks without straw.
Optical Industrial Park Investment tight
Lighting is a big cake, in order to develop the local economy, have been started around the photoelectric industrial park. In addition to the seven major industrial base prior to spare no effort to put all the preferential policies, Jiangmen, Huizhou is to make all the investment.
Many newly established industrial park known as the output value will reach tens of billions. Jining, Shandong Science and Technology Park UMC plans to build the largest LED epitaxial wafers and the new energy industry base, said after the completion of sales of up to 100 billion yuan. Dalian Wafangdian photovoltaic park planning area of 5 square kilometers, known as a total investment of over ten billion yuan.
Various industrial park "Merchants of war" fierce. Jiangmen, Yangzhou, Wuhu and other cities, the introduction of MOCVD subsidies ten million each. A variety of disguised free land grants, research grants and other measures are common.
Shenzhen, the introduction of "Shenzhen LED industry development plan", plans to scale of the industry in 2015 reached 130 billion yuan. Cultivate over 10 billion yuan output value of enterprises 1, 5 billion of value 2? 3, output value of more than 10 million 10 or more. "Promote the development of the semiconductor industry, a number of measures photographs" in Shenzhen will focus on 100 million yuan earmarked for each year to support the semiconductor lighting industry.
Jiangmen City, introduced the "Green Jiangmen (semiconductor) light industry development plan (2009-2015)" and "High-tech Industrial Development Zone, Jiangmen City, the LED industry to promote the development of temporary preferences." One of the most notable is the introduction of MOCVD high subsidies.
Yangzhou City issued a "Yangzhou promote LED and solar photovoltaic industry development policy implementation," the "LED and Yangzhou on the promotion of the implementation of solar photovoltaic industry," and "Yangzhou LED epitaxial wafers with MOCVD equipment purchase subsidies Management Regulations "and so on.
Hangzhou, the introduction of "LED industry three-year action plan (2009-2011)", the city's LED industry sales value of above-scale enterprises and strive to reach 100 billion yuan, the annual average growth rate of 60%. Cultivate over 10 billion yuan annual output value of enterprises 1, 5 billion of business 2? 3, the formation of Hangzhou, a unique industry features and technical advantages.
Nanchang, Shandong, Xiamen, Zhongshan, Chengdu, Dalian, Jining, the South China Sea and other places all have introduced the relevant policies.
At present, China's photovoltaic industry park very wide distribution, and many of the surrounding industrial park is not supporting. A responsible official admitted Industrial Park Investment, now under construction across the country industrial park, if the location is almost, that is duplication.
Industrial Park to snatch all companies make a variety of commitment to the enterprise, and some committed hard cash. While not all businesses are high-tech semiconductor lighting companies, and some places in order to attract investment junk subsidies.
Looking ahead, there will be more industrial park was established. But Darwin's theory of evolution will be staged, natural selection, survival of the fittest, will eventually grow from a group of outstanding industrial park.
Accelerating the adoption of LED lighting in overseas markets
As the purchasing power of people in developed countries will be strong, while the traditional markets of developed countries on the difference between lamps and LED lamps smaller than in developing countries, the popularity of LED lighting issues, they at the forefront.
Japan GFK survey data show, LED light bulb market share in Japan from 2009 to 0.01% of the rapid increase of 10% in February this year.
In April, the Japanese government began to implement environmentally friendly products points system, receive government subsidies to buy LED green credits, the measures to further promote the popularity of LED lighting, and more are turning to the production of LED lighting products.
The most prominent is the performance of Toshiba Corporation, Toshiba has been the mainstay of LED lighting products, starting from March to stop the production of incandescent bulbs. Incandescent lamp is Toshiba's business products, over 120 years of production history.
Last year, Japan's 8W LED bulb price is 4000 yen, appearing on the market this year, more than 2,000 yen LED bulb. End of this year's estimated average price of the Japanese market will be reduced to 3000 yen or less.
European and American market with a similar scene in Japan, government policies to phase out incandescent light, green light on the grant. Meanwhile, the environmental awareness of people of European higher, but also causes rapid popularity of LED lighting. LED products to EU countries have a high subsidies, give Italy, for example, subsidy of up to 55%.
GLII survey, first quarter of 2010, output value of China's LED application 199 billion yuan, up 42% surge in overseas demand is an important reason.
LED current domestic foreign trade enterprises the proportion of total sales, up 70 percent, some companies reached 90%. Overall, the market situation is China's production overseas sales. Next couple of years this situation will continue.
High-power chips to achieve new breakthroughs in optical efficiency
February this year, American Career (CREE) announced that its high-power chips to achieve 208lm / W @ 350mA. The blue-chip companies through performance improvements, such as the optical output power, lower voltage and higher conversion efficiency, to achieve this historic breakthrough.
And two months after the company announced a 161lm / W for technological breakthroughs. According to Career test, 1 mm × 1 mm of the LED can produce 173 lumens of light output, to achieve 161lm / w of the optical efficiency, color temperature of 4689K.
December 2009, senior engineers LED CEO Xiaofei had predicted six months of laboratory medicine sharp luminous efficiency will reach 200lm / W. This prediction proved correct.
The research makes the light effect on the company's Career with other growing gap between the current Osram, Lumileds and other laboratory light effect in about 140? 150lm / W between. Over the past few years, the efficiency of LED chip production about a year 15lm / W growth rate, due to technological advances, Career in 2010 increased the efficiency of high-power chip is expected to reach 30lm / W.
This shows the Career of the silicon carbide substrate and GaN technology's unique advantages. In the low-power chip light effects, the Japanese are still ahead of other Asian giant, the highest efficiency so that the 249lm / W @ 20mA.
As most of the chip manufacturers to adopt a sapphire substrate technology, which line the slow growth of luminous efficiency, luminous efficiency is currently the technology's prospects in a still difficult to predict how, with pessimists believe that sapphire chip light-efficient only can reach 150lm / W. Future technology trends remains to be seen.
Traditional lighting to LED lighting to accelerate the transfer of
No wonder people in the industry that 2010 is the first year of the development of LED industry. 2010 Guangzhou International Lighting Exhibition is a strong evidence: 13.5 million square meters of exhibition area, the more than 70,000 square meters of LED exhibition, all more than half of the more than 1,800 companies have LED lighting products; all 13 exhibition halls in six to LED as its theme; exhibition site forums, events almost all LED-based theme. This show is almost as LED lighting in the world.
LED industry in the "Go! Go! Go!" The outbreak of the state. Anyone want to piece of meat and potatoes of eating delicious cake. Leading companies who like the traditional lighting Philips, Osram, GE, according to the Buddha, Op, NVC, TCL, three male Aurora, Benjamin, the state, the sun, Huayi, Benjamin, etc. are all overtly or covertly turn the LED lighting.
Philips dominate the chip, package, lighting and other businesses throughout the industrial chain. Philips LED bulbs lighting accounts for 10 percent of revenue%, Philips releases new LED lighting product news after another.
NVC Lighting and global leader CREE LED chip formed a strategic partnership, NVC will raise funds for 10% of the market for R & D of LED lighting products, these messages are all revealed NVC is a transition LED.
TCL Lighting nearly a decade to do the traditional lighting, recently started to engage in LED applications, over 70 variety of LED products to market.
Face straight to the point of traditional lighting, LED lighting is not in disarray. Is the so-called "Stones from other hills may serve to polish jade", LED lighting, traditional lighting should draw lessons from the capital, talent, technology, marketing, etc. to enrich their own strength. Not only in the Olympic Games, World Expo and other large items left on the beautiful figure, but also into the homes of ordinary people in every corner of the world to bring the green light.
Some countries prohibit the use of incandescent lamps of the plan, China will gradually phase out incandescent bulbs, energy saving in the world, under call, LED-specific green energy will encourage the industry into the glorious chapter. Favorable factors, both the LED to run into?? Good policy, the Government implemented, LED legitimate their way, insight will increasingly have to join the large team, participated in lighting change.
But, the revolution has not succeeded, comrades still work! Long road to just take the first step, the road is long Come, we need to up and down the quest! More visi: www.bgocled.com
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